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Match preview: It’s not win or go home, it’s win and stay home

Forward Madison vs Union Omaha | 5 pm | Breese Stevens Field, Madison, WI | ESPN Select

A lot of us have had this one circled on our calendar since the beginning of the season. As it turns out, the stakes won’t be real high, but I expect an electric atmosphere nonetheless.

The last time Union Omaha came to Madison, it was a wild one. Madison had nothing to play for in final group stage game of the USL Cup, while Omaha still have faint hopes of making it out of the group. The match ended with a Hakim Karamoko goal six minutes into stoppage time to give Madison a 4-3 lead and end Omaha’s hopes of making it to the knockout stage.

The stakes are swapped now: with consecutive losses to Fort Wayne and Westchester, Omaha has let the Players’ Shield slip away and can not finish any higher or lower than second place – a place they’ve earned through consistent excellence all season. Meanwhile Madison can secure third place and a home playoff match – the goal set by the club all the way back in March – with a win. (Even if we draw or lose, both Boise and Spokane would have to win against Fort Wayne and Naples, respectively, to knock us to fifth. But let’s not worry about that — let’s just seal it at home.)

Breese Stevens Field has been almost impregnable this season, the only League One loss coming at the hands of Spokane in September. And coming off a convincing win over Portland, the Mingos will have regained some of the swagger they carried through the summer. Omaha, meanwhile, are scuffling of late.

Westchester was able to beat Omaha last week in large part due to defender Daniel Burko, who not only defended well but notched both assists in the 2-1 win. We have a couple Burkos of our own in Kerfalle Toure and Kevin Carmichael, who will likely be able to ask questions wandering forward.

Fort Wayne was able to win 1-0 playing against the ball — Omaha had 71% of the possession but couldn’t do anything with it. Goalkeeper Bernd Schippman also stood very tall for Fort Wayne. Our backline has been stellar, obviously, but has been a little bit susceptible to mental lapses and silly mistakes of late. We need 90 full minutes of lockdown defending and goalkeeping to keep Sergio Ors Navarro and Diego Gutiérez off the score sheet.

Of course, with nothing to play for, Omaha might rest some of their big guns, but I kinda doubt it. They don’t want to limp into the playoffs on three straight losses. This game will be meaningful for reasons that have nothing to do with the table.

On the Mingos side of things, we saw Ryan Carmichael bag two goals last weekend — a tap-in and a penalty. Nothing will be quite so easy this week. Jackson Castro came back from knee surgery to play the last 12 minutes against Portland. I would love to see him and Roman Torres together again. Eddie Munjoma and Claudel N’Goubou have been very close to scoring the last few weeks,. And you know what? We are tied for the most set pieces goals in the league with 18, but we haven’t had one in a while (other than Ryan’s pen last week). Maybe we can get one or two of those.

It’s going to be a barnburner, and it’s going to 70 degrees at game time. See you there!

While you await kickoff, listen to the podcast!

The boys bounced back and today on the show, we talk through a win over Portland more convincing than even the two nil scoreline would suggest. Then, it’s nearly the end of the year, so it’s time for our first annual player score cards – what grades do Ethan and I give each player, and why, and do you agree? Plus: it’s time to talk playoff scenarios!

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